On January 18, 2012, NASA released a Global Surface Temperature Analysis. It is authored by Jim Hansen, who has been one of the lead mad-made global warming proponents. The paper is full of charts and graphs and statistical analysis, but the conclusion can be summarized by the following quote:
Thus, although the current global warming graphs (Figs. 2, 3 and the upper part of Fig. 7) are suggestive of a slowdown in global warming, this apparent slowdown may largely disappear as a few more years of data are added. In particular we need to see how high global temperature rises in response to the next El Niño, and we also need to consider the effect of the 10-12 year cycle of solar irradiance. This raises the question of when the next El Niño will occur and the status of the solar cycle.
Remember, this document is written by someone whose entire livelihood and reputation is tied to man-made global warming being true. So, let me restate the pro-global warming position as described in this paragraph… Global Warming has stopped (aka “apparently slowed down”), but we need to wait a few more years in hopes that it will have started again (aka don’t cut my budget, warming will come back, I hope!)
What is really causing the largest component of the slight warming seen over the last 60 years? How about the last comment: “status of the solar cycle”? According to multiple sources, including NASA, analysis of the Sun’s interior, visible surface and corona imply that the Sun’s next solar cycle will be significantly reduced, or may not even appear at all. From the Met Office of the British Government October 2011 research report:
The study, carried out with Imperial College London and the University of Oxford, shows that low UV output from the sun can contribute to cold winters over parts of the northern hemisphere, such as recently seen in the UK. Years of higher UV have the opposite effect.
Let me restate this paragraph, too…
Sun is dim, earth is cold
Sun is bright, earth is hot
You might have experienced this yourself. Go to Florida in August, it is hot. Go to Alaska in February, it is cold. Thank goodness the British taxpayer paid for this research and not me. What would we do without scientists…
Furthermore, according to the Met, there is a 92% chance that we could be entering a period as cold as the ‘Dalton Minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. During this period, temperatures in Europe fell 2 degrees celsius.
So, back to Global Warmist, Jim Hansen and his paper… Global warming stopped 15 years ago, and he is hoping that the Sun will heat things up again before he looks like a fool.
I have long held the position that carbon dioxide has an impact on climate. However, I have long disagreed with the Global Warmists that CO2 is a major force — I have argued that it is the Sun — which makes a heck of a lot of logical sense. Unfortunately, we have allowed these zealots to drive wacky public policy choices — like those here in Delaware. We have spent tens of millions of dollars on a fairy tale pulling productive money out of the economy to fund venture capital backed entities like Fiskar Automotive and Bloom Energy with taxpayer money. Crony capitalism at its worse.
You’d think that after 15 years, our policy makers would get it. But, they don’t.
To invert the argument, what if I’m wrong and warming is all about carbon? China is firing up about 1 coal fired power plant every week as it tries to pull 600 million people out of abject poverty (earnings of less than $2 a day). They don’t care about warming, they care about eating. India is in a similar place. Brazil, Nigeria & Indonesia are all in similar straights. Their impact will be much larger than the 900,000 residents of Delaware. So, our public policy choices are foolish in that we are making our citizens suffer high unemployment and a stagnant standard of living for absolutely no impact.