We’re a few weeks out from an election. So, between the usual things that eat up my time: business (new role out of website & a bunch of new services), family, The Delaware Academy, SURJ, etc., election activities have me a bit bogged down.
However, after laughing through the Carney/Coons responses to last weeks jobs report (It’s great to see both guys with such great ideas on jobs growth, but weren’t they on watch when Delaware’s & New Castle County’s economies tanked — which occurred well before the national economy tanked — any more good ideas from them, and we’ll be Europe in no time), I thought I’d look at the economy from a 30,000 foot level for a minute…
The Federal Reserve is about to launch the QE2 – Quantitative Easing II. It is rumored that the Fed plans to buy more assets on the market with printed dollars to try to “stimulate” economic activity. Of course, any idiot knows that this action is simply inflationary (with almost no positive GDP impact), but that’s the point. The Fed is deathly afraid of deflation. In 2002, Chairman Bernanke even stated that he’d drop money from helicopters to avoid deflation — so we know where he stands.
So, despite an anemic “economic recovery” the stock market is going up (that is, to much money chasing too few goods leads to inflation — stocks being the good being chased). In short, the dollar continues to decline and my children’s standard of living takes another hit.
You’ll note that I put “economic recovery” in quotes. Why? Because last weeks jobs report (The one the Carney & Coons swear to fix just like they fixed Delaware & New Castle County) is the first report since last December that the United States lost jobs during a month. That’s right, we lost jobs. It is true that the increasingly rapid exodus from the White House is probably included in this number, but that is only a handful of the ~20,000 jobs and, regrettably, the President will probably replace the first set of incompetent economists with a similar set of incompetent economists. So, the “economic recovery” is over.
In short, the end of 2010 is turning into an economic catastrophe. Is there a recession looming in 2011? Too soon to call, but the probability is increasing not decreasing.